Just as very high oil prices looked an anomaly in a sluggish world, so now do record high equities.
By driving a hard bargain with Russia in procuring crude oil at the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of G7 and Washington is "comfortable" with New Delhi over its approach in addressing issues relating to energy security, a top Biden administration official said.
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
India may have to lean more on West Asian nations for supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a cooking fuel, in the coming years after Indian state-run refiners drew up big plans to diversify into producing more profitable petrochemicals. This shift leads to reduced LPG output, Indian refining executives said. The mantra for state-run oil companies, from Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil) to liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer Petronet LNG, which are looking to diversify their businesses from lower-margin fuels, has been value-added petrochemicals.
'If the Bangladesh-China relationship strengthens further, it can only be to India's detriment,' notes Vice Admiral Premvir Das.
China on Wednesday reacted sharply to the United States move to exclude it along with India from the list of countries exempted from sanctions for importing crude oil from Iran, saying it is opposed to any unilateral action without United Nations authorisation.
State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and NTPC were among the biggest laggards among Sensex shares. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and ITC were among the gainers.
With Iran reaching an agreement on its nuclear programme, India is expected to be one of the major gainers.
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Titan, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever and JSW Steel were the biggest laggards.
'The touchstone is reciprocity which will be applied to friends and foes alike.' 'It will be a bitter pill to swallow.'
Global trends and the Covid situation in China would drive the equity markets this week, which may also see volatility amid the scheduled derivatives expiry on Thursday, said analysts. According to analysts, investor sentiment remained subdued last week amid surging Covid cases in China and a few other nations. Also, stronger US growth data has cemented expectations of the Federal Reserve continuing with its hawkish stance, which added to the muted trend.
India expects to remain unscathed this time, mainly because it is in a sweet spot as the world's third largest oil consumer, after the US and China, says Subhomoy Bhattacharjee.
At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
He is currently on a two-day swing to the crucial State of Iowa. On January 15, Iowa would kick off the 2024 Republican presidential primary season.
'...and the country should be impoverished completely.' 'Once this is done, the political class would take over and then play a part in real democracy where the army is under the control of the government, not vice-versa.'
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
India's exports contracted 12.2 per cent to $34.48 billion in December 2022, mainly due to global headwinds, and the trade deficit widened to $23.76 billion during the same period, according to official data released on Monday. Imports in December 2022 also declined 3.5 per cent to $58.24 billion as against $60.33 billion in the year-ago period. In December 2021, exports stood at $39.27 billion and the trade deficit was at $21.06 billion.
International oil prices continue to be extremely volatile, falling on one day and rising thereafter, a top oil ministry official said explaining the reason behind no reduction in petrol and diesel prices despite softening in input cost, but could not say if the rates will be cut before Maharashtra elections. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel last week -- the first time since December 2021 -- but gained thereafter. Brent was trading at $74.58 per barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade at $71.71.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
The decline in exports is mainly on account of poor demand in India's key destinations -- the Europe and the US -- and it may take some more months for the situation to improve. The demand scenario is "not looking very good as far as Europe is concerned, and the US also we have seen a decline in demand. "For the next 2-3 months, I think the demand scenario does not look very optimistic," DGFT (Director General of Foreign Trade) Santosh Kumar Sarangi told reporters.
Output in the first half of the year was 101.59 million tonnes.
The change of heart in the US and India was propelled by the increased threat of China to both countries, explains Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
'While criticising India's high tariffs, Mr Trump stated he would impose reciprocal taxes on Indian products if re-elected.' 'However, since India's tariffs follow WTO rules, Mr Trump's actions would violate these rules,' Ajay Srivastava points out.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
Russian traders have started asking for payments in ruble for their exports to India in a move that could derail trade between the two countries which gathered pace after the war in Europe. This is because Indian importers are unable to pay in ruble. The India-Russia trade gathered pace after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February this year. In the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent year on year.
Until Delhi and Beijing resolve outstanding border issues within an accelerated time frame, standoffs like Doklam will be repeated across various peaks along the Himalayas, says Mathew Maavak.
Ushering in reforms, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday proposed to open up the nuclear power sector for private players and announced a Rs 20,000 crore Nuclear Energy Mission for research in the field, with an aim to set up five small and modular reactors by 2033.
India and China should follow the path of cooperation and not confrontation in their quest for overseas energy sources, Union Panchayati Raj Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar said on Thursday.
Exports to India's key markets - the US, the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, Bangladesh and Germany - witnessed a sharp decline, resulting in a 12.69 per cent contraction in outbound shipments during the first month of the current financial year, commerce department data showed. India's biggest export market - the US - with 17 per cent share witnessed 17.16 per cent contraction at $5.9 billion in April. This was followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that saw 22.09 per cent decline at $2.23 billion exports.
"China creeps towards hegemony in Asia, threatens India's borders, and treats other countries as junior partners, Indian-American Congressman Ro Khanna said.
'By his words, actions, and body language during their joint press appearance wanted to convey his personal respect and, more broadly, his desire to work closely with India.'
The real intention of the 'Tariff Man' (as Trump calls himself) may not even be to put the 'Tariff King' (as he describes India) on the mat with a knockout punch but to arm-twist the Indian leadership to agree to some multi-billion dollar mega arms deal, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
At present, in Myanmar, GAIL and IndianOil have a minority stake in a gas pipeline which goes to China, through South East Asia Gas Pipeline Company.
'An internationally established price of crude will encourage more players to invest in India, leading to enhanced domestic production which can be made available to domestic refineries,' recommends Anil Agarwal whose company Vedanta Resources has a controlling stake in Cairn India that operates the country's biggest onland oilfield in Barmer, Rajasthan.
Whatever be India's course of action, it will have an impact on India-Iran ties, notes Aveek Sen.
'Putin dreams about his legacy. He wants to forcibly restore the Russian empire.' 'Unfortunately, after three years of large-scale war with massive human losses, Putin will not budge from his goal because human life is the cheapest resource in the Russian State.'
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
